At this point, it is becoming clear that Russia does not have the strength to launch a major offensive, while Kiev seems to have adjusted its strategy and is no longer trying to post territory at any cost, withdrawing from it if necessary. At the same time, the Ukrainians try and succeed in inflicting the greatest possible losses on the enemy.
Russian losses amount to a thousand soldiers per day (sum of dead and wounded), and the aggressor loses a lot of equipment. Pentagon officials declared that Russia lost more than 600 thousand soldiers, practically double the troops engaged at the beginning of the invasion on February 22, 2022.
At the level of combat equipment, most of the more modern armored vehicles thrown into battle in the first months of the war were destroyed.
Also, stockpiles of Soviet-era armored vehicles may run out next year if current levels of losses are maintained. For Russia, these are crucial because new production does not appear to be enough to replace losses.
However, the situation of Russian production is more complex. An analysis cited by the Atlantic Council estimates that Russia can increase the pace of production and could manufacture a thousand tanks annually, at the level of 2025/2026.
At Vuhledar, the elite troops remained with only 20% of their strength
Returning to the number of military losses, the Russians are starting to have problems in their advance towards Pokrovsk and Ceasiv Iar. The advance on Pokrovsk slowed substantially.
German analyst and CDU politician Nico Lange believes that Russia does not have the strength to launch a major offensive on Pokrovsk, even though artillery has moved closer to the city.
Also, the success at Vuhledar (where the Ukrainians retreated the other day) has cost the Russians dearly in the last two years.
The losses of the elite 155th Brigade of the Pacific Fleet of the Russian Federation, which has been fighting near Vuhledar in the Donetsk region since the fall of 2022, amount to about 2,400 people. Basically, the Brigade lost about 80% of its soldiers. Of the original 3,000 people, only 600 remain.
North Korean ammunition retains the quantitative advantage for the Russians
Even the ratio of artillery shells fired is not as unfavorable for Ukraine as it was last year, and at the beginning of this year, when it was one in ten, it is now one in 2.5.
The Russians maintain their superiority in the number of shells fired only because of the supply of ammunition from North Korea. However, this ammo is unreliable.
Russia is far from its main goal of establishing control over the Donetsk and Luhansk regions by the end of this year.
Moreover, although the Russian Federation has set a goal of pushing Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region by early this month, it now appears that it will take longer and require much more effort.
It is the ongoing Ukrainian occupation of part of Russia's Kursk region that has exposed the limits of the Kremlin's war machine.
The reaction to the incursion in the Kursk region showed weaknesses in the Russian Army, but Russia cannot be underestimated, he believes.
