Ukraine wants to join NATO as part of its plan to end the conflict with Russia, and recent reports suggest that Kiev and its allies are seriously discussing the West German model.
During a September visit to the US, Ukrainian presidential chief of staff Andri Yermak said joining the alliance was part of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's "victory plan" to end more than two years of bloody fighting years and a half in Ukraine.
Can the West German model be applied to Ukraine?
As an example for Ukraine, it has been discussed in foreign policy circles for a year and a half. Former Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs Dan Fried was one of the first to propose it. Former Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Volker and Stoltenberg's predecessor Anders Fogh Rasmussen also favor this model.
While Ukraine's long-dreamed-of NATO membership has been consistently dismissed as impossible, especially after Russia launches its invasion in 2022, the alliance's former secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg, recently told the Financial Times that he would there might be ways to make it possible.
Ukraine could join NATO even if parts of its territory remain occupied by Russia, the alliance's former secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, said in an interview on October 4.
Stoltenberg suggested that there could be ways around this if Ukrainian territory considered part of NATO was not "necessarily the internationally recognized border".
"When there is a will, there are ways to find the solution. But there needs to be a line that defines where Article 5 is invoked, and Ukraine needs to control all the territory up to that border ," he said.
His reference to Article 5 refers to the part of the NATO pact treaty that obliges all members to regard an attack on one member of the alliance as an attack on all within the territory defined by Article 6.
Referring to the historical examples of NATO protecting West Germany or Japan's security guarantees from the US, Stoltenberg, while warning that "no parallel is 100% correct", suggested a membership model for the parties in Ukraine controlled by Kiev. Russia currently controls about 20% of Ukrainian territory.
Skeptics fear that Moscow could provoke an escalation. After all, joining NATO guarantees Ukraine's sovereignty and will allow it to continue the Western vector that Vladimir Putin is trying to destroy.
In a recent interview with the Ukrainian daily Kyiv Independent, Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Breckelman confirmed that discussions are underway on a potential peace plan in which the part of the country controlled by Ukraine would join NATO along the lines of Germany's West. He did not elaborate on how advanced the talks are at this stage.
But in an interview broadcast Monday on CBS News' 60 Minutes, US Vice President Kamala Harras, the Democratic nominee who will face Donald Trump on the Republican ticket in this fall's presidential election, suggested that the discussion of Ukraine's accession to the NATO will be discussed at a later time.
Asked if he supports NATO expansion into Ukraine, Harris said that is one of the "issues we will address if and when it gets to that point right now, we support Ukraine's ability to defend itself against unprovoked Russian aggression."
A wrong parallel with West Germany: Putin will not accept such an offer, negotiating land in Ukraine
Other analysts argue that West Germany is a false parallel, as its temporary borders were recognized by both the West and the USSR. In Ukraine, however, borders are contested every day.
Oleksiy Melnyk, foreign policy and international security fellow at the Kyiv-based Razumkov Center think tank, was asked by the Kyiv Independent how feasible it is for parts of Ukraine to join NATO.
"There are some confusing statements coming from different sources. The official position of the Ukrainian government, President (Volodymyr) Zelensky, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, was that there would be "no exchange of territories for a ceasefire, for peace". At the same time, I learned from international sources that first it was some kind of idea, and later from some kind of verified information leaks that there are some negotiations behind closed doors, considering these kinds of options. It seems to me that there is some kind of game going on. Surely there must be some discussion of a possible compromise. I do not know whether Ukrainian officials have clearly stated their willingness to consider such a compromise. I assume, for now, that there is such a discussion. The Ukrainian government does not publicly acknowledge this. I don't know how we can continue if President Zelenski maintains the same position. This (possible NATO membership of the Ukrainian-controlled territories of the country) does not seem very possible at the moment. We all know the position of other NATO members who are not ready to take such a risk".
Ben Hodges, a retired US general and former commanding general of the US Army in Europe, says he has no confidence that Russia will ever fully comply with any agreement on Ukraine, and therefore it is in the West's strategic interest to help defeat Russia and to crush its imperialist ambitions.
"I would also say that I trust President Zelensky and his judgment about what is best for Ukraine" General Hodges told the Kyiv Independent.
Jenny Mathers, Professor of International Studies at Aberystwyth University, also says it is unlikely that Putin would accept such an offer, trading land in Ukraine in return for NATO protection for the rest of Ukraine.
However, there is an exception, namely , the case where Russia is clearly defeated on the battlefield and Putin believes that he has no better options. The whole purpose of the invasion of Ukraine, both in 2014 and after, was to remove Ukraine from NATO influence and bring it back under Russian control . ''
"It is likely that some NATO member states would be willing to offer Ukraine full membership or near-equivalent protection sooner rather than later, though by no means all , largely precisely because of concerns about a military confrontation direct relationship between NATO and Russia, which dictated the hesitations regarding the supply to Ukraine of certain types of weapons or the permission to use Western-supplied weapons in certain ways'' Mathers said.
